Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors Knicks (55%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (100%) · Pistons at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28

Knicks55¢Pistons45¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$31.75

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 45¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks55%

Pistons45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,184

Combined PnL+$31.75

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pistonsavg 44¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$21.71	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
GO goldmynameCTR	Pistonsavg 44¢	$789.55	$789.55	+$8.97	60% 108-73 (181)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Pistonsavg 44.2¢	$87.34	$87.99	+$0.65	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 44.2¢	$61.47	$62.55	+$1.08
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 55.9¢	$25.87	$25.44	-$0.43
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 44¢	$47	$48.07	+$1.07	54% 3774-3233 (7007)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pistons

Invested

$1,917.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$21.71

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

goldmynameCTR

Pistons

Invested

$789.55

Value

$789.55

PnL

+$8.97

Record

60%

108-73 (181)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$87.34

Value

$87.99

PnL

+$0.65

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

Both legs:

Pistons$61.4744.2¢+$1.08

Knicks$25.8755.9¢-$0.43

takeormakeCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$47

Value

$48.07

PnL

+$1.07

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.