Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 79¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Pistons21¢Knicks79¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$208.63

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 79¢

+44% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons21%

Knicks79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,817

Combined PnL+$225.51

Pistons4 traders

Total Value$750.94

Total Shares1,752

Combined PnL-$16.88

Knicks — 50%Pistons — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKnicks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Knicksavg 54¢	$4.7K	$3.4K	+$111.73	48% 500-532 (1032)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 54¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$205.74
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 45.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$94.01
QU QuentinChen	Knicksavg 54¢	$3.1K	$1.9K	+$172.37	47% 308-351 (659)
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 55.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$48.83	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
TO torta.techCTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$744.75	$711.65	-$33.1	63% 7960-4740 (12700)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Knicksavg 73.2¢	$59.57	$62.7	+$3.13	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 21¢	$13.65	$27.95	+$14.3	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Knicksavg 54¢	$21.33	$22.52	+$1.19	50% 3682-3663 (7345)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 21¢	$3.36	$6.88	+$3.52	67% 23068-11460 (34528)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 21¢	$3.36	$4.46	-$1.6	50% 632-639 (1271)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$4,726.45

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$111.73

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

Both legs:

Knicks$1,709.2254¢+$205.74

Pistons$1,561.2345.8¢-$94.01

QuentinChen

Knicks

Invested

$3,134

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$172.37

Record

47%

308-351 (659)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$1,395.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$48.83

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

torta.techCTR

Pistons

Invested

$744.75

Value

$711.65

PnL

-$33.1

Record

63%

7960-4740 (12700)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Knicks

Invested

$59.57

Value

$62.7

PnL

+$3.13

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$13.65

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$14.3

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

NatoAlfista<$100

Knicks

Invested

$21.33

Value

$22.52

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

3682-3663 (7345)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$3.36

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$3.52

Record

67%

23068-11460 (34528)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$3.36

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$1.6

Record

50%

632-639 (1271)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKnicks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.