Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (100%) · Knicks at 89¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Pistons12¢Knicks88¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 88.5¢

+74% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons12%

Knicks89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,991

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 49.6¢	$2.5K	$4.0K	+$1.4K	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Pistonsavg 48.1¢	$534.56	$306.77	-$227.79	48% 500-532 (1032)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 51.3¢	$116	$197.96	+$81.96
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48.1¢	$418.56	$108.81	-$309.75
OM omnibus-076daa	Knicksavg 68¢	$109.17	$140.48	+$31.31	49% 18514-18927 (37441)
JU justaluckydude	Knicksavg 59¢	$77.88	$115.5	+$37.62	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
TA takeormake	Knicksavg 51.8¢	$67.82	$114.63	+$46.81	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Knicksavg 69.4¢	$34.28	$35.06	+$0.78	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Knicksavg 47¢	$21.15	$22.05	+$0.9	50% 3682-3663 (7345)
HRTrading<$100	Knicksavg 47.6¢	$2.41	$4.43	+$2.02	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$2,525.13

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$534.56

Value

$306.77

PnL

-$227.79

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

Both legs:

Knicks$11651.3¢+$81.96

Pistons$418.5648.1¢-$309.75

omnibus-076daa

Knicks

Invested

$109.17

Value

$140.48

PnL

+$31.31

Record

49%

18514-18927 (37441)

justaluckydude

Knicks

Invested

$77.88

Value

$115.5

PnL

+$37.62

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

takeormake

Knicks

Invested

$67.82

Value

$114.63

PnL

+$46.81

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Knicks

Invested

$34.28

Value

$35.06

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

NatoAlfista<$100

Knicks

Invested

$21.15

Value

$22.05

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

3682-3663 (7345)

HRTrading<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.41

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$2.02

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.