Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors Knicks (57%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (50%) · Pistons at 43¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Pistons43¢Knicks57¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$167.54

Smart Money Entry

35.1¢ → 42.5¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons43%

Knicks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$766.65

Total Shares1,481

Combined PnL+$213.05

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$392.6

Total Shares783

Combined PnL-$45.5

Pistons — 50%Knicks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Knicksavg 52.2¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$505.39	56% 2590-2035 (4625)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 33¢	$1.0K	$1.7K	+$620.16
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 52.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$114.77
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pistonsavg 49.3¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$208.59	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 49.3¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$303.1
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 49.9¢	$618.76	$713.26	+$94.51
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Knicksavg 46.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$12.46	48% 500-532 (1032)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 46.8¢	$795.14	$807.54	+$12.39
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52.5¢	$250.54	$250.61	+$0.07
RN1CTR	Pistonsavg 34.6¢	$448.74	$637.49	+$188.75	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pistonsavg 36.6¢	$393.84	$493.27	+$99.43	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 36.6¢	$243.79	$330.16	+$86.36
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 46.5¢	$150.05	$163.12	+$13.06
OM omnibus-076daa	Knicksavg 56¢	$233.23	$216.57	-$16.66	49% 18478-18900 (37378)
JU justaluckydude	Knicksavg 53.8¢	$161.01	$142.03	-$18.98	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 35.2¢	$60.89	$86.5	+$25.61	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 45.7¢	$43.97	$42.66	-$1.31	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Knicksavg 64.5¢	$43.86	$34	-$9.86	58% 27917-20560 (48477)

Anon455ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2,329.36

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$505.39

Record

56%

2590-2035 (4625)

Both legs:

Pistons$1,049.9833¢+$620.16

Knicks$1,279.3852.2¢-$114.77

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2,803.71

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$208.59

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Pistons$2,184.9649.3¢-$303.1

Knicks$618.7649.9¢+$94.51

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1,045.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.46

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

Both legs:

Knicks$795.1446.8¢+$12.39

Pistons$250.5452.5¢+$0.07

RN1CTR

Pistons

Invested

$448.74

Value

$637.49

PnL

+$188.75

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

takeormakeARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$393.84

Value

$493.27

PnL

+$99.43

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

Both legs:

Pistons$243.7936.6¢+$86.36

Knicks$150.0546.5¢+$13.06

omnibus-076daa

Knicks

Invested

$233.23

Value

$216.57

PnL

-$16.66

Record

49%

18478-18900 (37378)

justaluckydude

Knicks

Invested

$161.01

Value

$142.03

PnL

-$18.98

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$60.89

Value

$86.5

PnL

+$25.61

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$43.97

Value

$42.66

PnL

-$1.31

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Knicks

Invested

$43.86

Value

$34

PnL

-$9.86

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.