Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 229.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.3K
$36.59
51.6¢ → 52.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 52¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.69 | 46% 526-624 (1150) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51¢ | $915.46 | $933.41 | +$17.95 | 50% 2600-2575 (5175) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47.9¢ | $221.2 | $228.53 | +$7.33 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $32.11 | $32.42 | +$0.31 | 43% 198-262 (460) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $12.38 | $9.62 | -$0.2 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $6.72 | $7.23 | +$0.51 | 18% 32-147 (179) |
Invested
$1,112.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.69
Record
46%
526-624 (1150)
Invested
$915.46
Value
$933.41
PnL
+$17.95
Record
50%
2600-2575 (5175)
Invested
$221.2
Value
$228.53
PnL
+$7.33
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$32.11
Value
$32.42
PnL
+$0.31
Record
43%
198-262 (460)
Invested
$12.38
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$0.51
Record
18%
32-147 (179)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.