Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 211.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$177.29

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 53.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,963

Combined PnL+$177.31

Over2 traders

Total Value$5.81

Total Shares12

Combined PnL-$0.03

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 50.9¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$165.71	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Underavg 51¢	$233.66	$242.82	+$11.45	47% 2620-2921 (5541)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.35	+$0.15	52% 7634-6911 (14545)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.65	-$0.05	55% 7454-5978 (13432)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$1.14	$1.16	+$0.02	54% 3475-3012 (6487)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$3,309.12

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$165.71

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Under

Invested

$233.66

Value

$242.82

PnL

+$11.45

Record

47%

2620-2921 (5541)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

7634-6911 (14545)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

7454-5978 (13432)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

3475-3012 (6487)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.