Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 209.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$43.89

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,993

Combined PnL+$42.07

Under3 traders

Total Value$257.96

Total Shares543

Combined PnL+$1.81

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$42.38	54% 17416-14612 (32028)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$235.5	$237.5	+$2	53% 5731-5065 (10796)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 53¢	$32.33	$32.03	-$0.3	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$10.85	$10.96	+$0.12	56% 14473-11230 (25703)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.5	-$0.3	55% 7414-5959 (13373)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,792.98

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$42.38

Record

54%

17416-14612 (32028)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$235.5

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

5731-5065 (10796)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$32.33

Value

$32.03

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.85

Value

$10.96

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

14473-11230 (25703)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.