Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 208.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 45¢ · $481 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$481.45
$5.44
44¢ → 45¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $233.04 | $238.34 | +$5.3 | 50% 495-492 (987) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $466.2 | $236.1 | +$11.28 | 47% 13045-14637 (27682) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $147.42 | $150.15 | +$5.15 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $84.04 | $85.95 | +$6.13 | |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $4.12 | $4.26 | +$0.14 | 56% 7471-5987 (13458) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.75 | +$0 | 53% 7649-6917 (14566) |
Invested
$233.04
Value
$238.34
PnL
+$5.3
Record
50%
495-492 (987)
Invested
$466.2
Value
$236.1
PnL
+$11.28
Record
47%
13045-14637 (27682)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.12
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$0.14
Record
56%
7471-5987 (13458)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7649-6917 (14566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.