Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (50%) · Hornets at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Pistons48¢Hornets52¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$5.79

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 52.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons48%

Hornets53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$660.62

Total Shares1,391

Combined PnL+$37.91

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$595.94

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL-$43.7

Pistons — 50%Hornets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPistons 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hornetsavg 56.2¢	$1.5K	$907.2	-$0.85	47% 13073-14657 (27730)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 56.2¢	$572.98	$540.6	-$33.94
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 42.9¢	$334.62	$366.6	+$33.09
CH chongchong37CTR	Pistonsavg 45¢	$406.82	$429.42	+$22.6	53% 126-112 (238)
nigiri99	Hornetsavg 56.5¢	$330.61	$307.13	-$23.48	46% 7290-8601 (15891)
SE sentrio	Hornetsavg 56.2¢	$306.38	$286.19	-$20.19	50% 25016-24737 (49753)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pistonsavg 44.4¢	$207.29	$221.69	+$14.41	62% 4300-2636 (6936)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 43¢	$8.6	$9.5	+$0.9	56% 7475-5989 (13464)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Hornetsavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.63	-$0.02	53% 7654-6919 (14573)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,459.36

Value

$907.2

PnL

-$0.85

Record

47%

13073-14657 (27730)

Both legs:

Hornets$572.9856.2¢-$33.94

Pistons$334.6242.9¢+$33.09

chongchong37CTR

Pistons

Invested

$406.82

Value

$429.42

PnL

+$22.6

Record

53%

126-112 (238)

nigiri99

Hornets

Invested

$330.61

Value

$307.13

PnL

-$23.48

Record

46%

7290-8601 (15891)

sentrio

Hornets

Invested

$306.38

Value

$286.19

PnL

-$20.19

Record

50%

25016-24737 (49753)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pistons

Invested

$207.29

Value

$221.69

PnL

+$14.41

Record

62%

4300-2636 (6936)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

56%

7475-5989 (13464)

ameisgoat11<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

7654-6919 (14573)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPistons 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pistons 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.