Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 223.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 55¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 30

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,208

Combined PnL+$18.68

Over5 traders

Total Value$414.22

Total Shares871

Combined PnL-$10.68

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52.4¢	$9.0K	$9.2K	+$168.77	54% 17115-14330 (31445)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.4¢	$6.2K	$6.4K	+$243.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.7¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$74.84
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 53.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$21.18	57% 245-184 (429)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 54¢	$540	$545	+$5	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 47.2¢	$288.19	$277.74	-$10.45	38% 377-619 (996)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 54.5¢	$617.5	$272.5	-$7.5	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 45.9¢	$61.6	$61.21	-$0.39	58% 28411-20972 (49383)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Overavg 45.2¢	$54.71	$55.09	+$0.38	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 46.6¢	$15.96	$11.09	-$0.32	57% 13599-10421 (24020)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$9	$9.1	+$0.1	56% 7053-5654 (12707)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,999.93

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$168.77

Record

54%

17115-14330 (31445)

Both legs:

Under$6,163.0352.4¢+$243.6

Over$2,836.8946.7¢-$74.84

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$1,999.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$21.18

Record

57%

245-184 (429)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$540

Value

$545

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$288.19

Value

$277.74

PnL

-$10.45

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$617.5

Value

$272.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.6

Value

$61.21

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.71

Value

$55.09

PnL

+$0.38

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.96

Value

$11.09

PnL

-$0.32

Record

57%

13599-10421 (24020)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.