Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 221.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 51¢ · $620 held · ends Oct 30

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$619.96

Combined PnL

$8.45

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 50.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$271.19

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$6.69

Under3 traders

Total Value$348.77

Total Shares712

Combined PnL+$1.76

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$221.04	$227.65	+$6.61	54% 17115-14330 (31445)
OD Oddstorm	Underavg 48.8¢	$138.17	$138.67	+$1.92	38% 377-619 (996)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 48¢	$466.59	$122.5	-$5.52	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 46¢	$82.23	$87.6	+$5.36	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$24.64	$24.16	-$0.48	58% 28411-20972 (49383)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$10.2	+$0.2	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$8.82	$9.18	+$0.36	52% 3994-3637 (7631)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$221.04

Value

$227.65

PnL

+$6.61

Record

54%

17115-14330 (31445)

Oddstorm

Under

Invested

$138.17

Value

$138.67

PnL

+$1.92

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$466.59

Value

$122.5

PnL

-$5.52

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$82.23

Value

$87.6

PnL

+$5.36

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.64

Value

$24.16

PnL

-$0.48

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.82

Value

$9.18

PnL

+$0.36

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.