Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 213.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$123.79
48.9¢ → 60.5¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 50.1¢ | $677.65 | $817.58 | +$139.93 | 48% 788-869 (1657) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 57.2¢ | $1.1K | $763.25 | -$315.09 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 47.4¢ | $432.73 | $447.49 | +$14.76 | 59% 45474-31848 (77322) |
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 46.6¢ | $74.54 | $107.2 | +$32.66 | 54% 10681-9281 (19962) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Overavg 52.6¢ | $63.62 | $64.54 | +$0.92 | 53% 4191-3790 (7981) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.6¢ | $45.12 | $43.73 | -$1.39 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43.6¢ | $18.5 | $20.81 | +$2.31 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 50.4¢ | $13.21 | $17.17 | +$3.95 | 57% 13671-10458 (24129) |
Invested
$677.65
Value
$817.58
PnL
+$139.93
Record
48%
788-869 (1657)
Invested
$1,078.34
Value
$763.25
PnL
-$315.09
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
Invested
$432.73
Value
$447.49
PnL
+$14.76
Record
59%
45474-31848 (77322)
Invested
$74.54
Value
$107.2
PnL
+$32.66
Record
54%
10681-9281 (19962)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$63.62
Value
$64.54
PnL
+$0.92
Record
53%
4191-3790 (7981)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.21
Value
$17.17
PnL
+$3.95
Record
57%
13671-10458 (24129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.