Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 211.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$1.1K
-$183.62
43.5¢ → 59¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 55.3¢ | $419.12 | $375.13 | -$43.99 | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 44.2¢ | $249.91 | $284.65 | +$34.74 | 48% 788-869 (1657) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 42.9¢ | $382.82 | $240.84 | -$141.98 | 59% 45474-31848 (77322) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $152.72 | $147.88 | -$4.84 | 54% 10681-9281 (19962) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 59.6¢ | $63.63 | $55.76 | -$7.88 | 53% 4191-3790 (7981) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $48.33 | $29 | -$19.33 | 50% 3808-3766 (7574) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $2.6 | $2.26 | -$0.34 | 57% 13671-10458 (24129) |
Invested
$419.12
Value
$375.13
PnL
-$43.99
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
Invested
$249.91
Value
$284.65
PnL
+$34.74
Record
48%
788-869 (1657)
Invested
$382.82
Value
$240.84
PnL
-$141.98
Record
59%
45474-31848 (77322)
Invested
$152.72
Value
$147.88
PnL
-$4.84
Record
54%
10681-9281 (19962)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$63.63
Value
$55.76
PnL
-$7.88
Record
53%
4191-3790 (7981)
Invested
$48.33
Value
$29
PnL
-$19.33
Record
50%
3808-3766 (7574)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.26
PnL
-$0.34
Record
57%
13671-10458 (24129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.