Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (36%) · Nets at 51¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 30

Pistons49¢Nets51¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 36%

Total Value

$21.1K

Combined PnL

$365.06

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 51¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons49%

Nets51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets4 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares36,477

Combined PnL+$342.49

Pistons7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,085

Combined PnL+$22.57

Nets — 36%Pistons — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Netsavg 51.4¢	$16.7K	$17.0K	+$362.31	54% 589-507 (1096)
GO goldmyname	Netsavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$19.48	61% 130-83 (213)
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR	Pistonsavg 48¢	$964.8	$994.95	+$30.15	49% 350-365 (715)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pistonsavg 48¢	$886.34	$877.11	-$9.23	54% 17115-14329 (31444)
HE Herdonia<$100	Netsavg 53.7¢	$53.88	$53.14	-$0.74	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 47.8¢	$48.81	$49.66	+$1.41	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 46¢	$47.06	$46.04	+$0	53% 387-337 (724)
RN1CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 49¢	$18.62	$18.81	+$0.19	54% 56314-48471 (104785)
0xheavy888<$100	Netsavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.6	+$0.4	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.95	+$0.03	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.94	+$0.02	57% 13599-10421 (24020)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Nets

Invested

$16,680.2

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$362.31

Record

54%

589-507 (1096)

goldmyname

Nets

Invested

$1,986.45

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$19.48

Record

61%

130-83 (213)

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR

Pistons

Invested

$964.8

Value

$994.95

PnL

+$30.15

Record

49%

350-365 (715)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pistons

Invested

$886.34

Value

$877.11

PnL

-$9.23

Record

54%

17115-14329 (31444)

Herdonia<$100

Nets

Invested

$53.88

Value

$53.14

PnL

-$0.74

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$48.81

Value

$49.66

PnL

+$1.41

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$47.06

Value

$46.04

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

387-337 (724)

RN1CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$18.62

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

56314-48471 (104785)

0xheavy888<$100

Nets

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13599-10421 (24020)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.