Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (60%) · Pistons at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Pistons55¢Nets45¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 60%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$23.75

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons55%

Nets46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,929

Combined PnL-$3.15

Nets2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,690

Combined PnL+$26.9

Pistons — 60%Nets — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Pistonsavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	53% 383-337 (720)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Netsavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$26.57	54% 17100-14316 (31416)
HE Herdonia	Pistonsavg 54.7¢	$150.61	$148.73	-$1.88	54% 3290-2834 (6124)
38 38791873984189	Pistonsavg 55¢	$139.7	$138.43	-$1.27	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Netsavg 45¢	$14.85	$15.18	+$0.33	58% 28383-20951 (49334)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Pistons

Invested

$1,319.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

383-337 (720)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Nets

Invested

$1,195.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$26.57

Record

54%

17100-14316 (31416)

Herdonia

Pistons

Invested

$150.61

Value

$148.73

PnL

-$1.88

Record

54%

3290-2834 (6124)

38791873984189

Pistons

Invested

$139.7

Value

$138.43

PnL

-$1.27

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$14.85

Value

$15.18

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

28383-20951 (49334)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.