Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (75%) · Pistons at 60¢ · $411 held · ends Oct 30

Pistons60¢Nets40¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 75%

Total Value

$411.17

Combined PnL

$2.18

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 60¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons60%

Nets40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons6 traders

Total Value$355.33

Total Shares587

Combined PnL+$2.9

Nets2 traders

Total Value$55.83

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$0.72

Pistons — 75%Nets — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Pistonsavg 60¢	$150	$151.25	+$1.25	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Pistonsavg 60¢	$120.18	$121.18	+$1	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Netsavg 40.5¢	$51.05	$50.4	-$0.65	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Pistonsavg 60¢	$76	$45.98	+$0.38	38% 377-619 (996)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pistonsavg 59.5¢	$19.63	$19.97	+$0.34	58% 28411-20972 (49383)
VeryLucky888<$100	Pistonsavg 60¢	$13.25	$13.36	+$0.11	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Netsavg 40¢	$5.5	$5.43	-$0.07	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$3.66	$3.6	-$0.18	50% 6968-6968 (13936)

RN1

Pistons

Invested

$150

Value

$151.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Pistons

Invested

$120.18

Value

$121.18

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$51.05

Value

$50.4

PnL

-$0.65

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

Oddstorm<$100

Pistons

Invested

$76

Value

$45.98

PnL

+$0.38

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pistons

Invested

$19.63

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

VeryLucky888<$100

Pistons

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.36

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

Forecastication2<$100

Pistons

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

6968-6968 (13936)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPistons 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.