Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$3.1K
$579.81
53¢ → 72.5¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDew | Noavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.6K | +$493.61 | 52% 374-341 (715) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 53¢ | $306.87 | $379.25 | +$72.38 | 49% 1151-1188 (2339) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $35 | $45.85 | +$10.85 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 53.9¢ | $31.49 | $33.84 | +$2.35 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $3.3 | $3.93 | +$0.63 | 50% 6977-6973 (13950) |
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$2,101.73
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$493.61
Record
52%
374-341 (715)
Invested
$306.87
Value
$379.25
PnL
+$72.38
Record
49%
1151-1188 (2339)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$35
Value
$45.85
PnL
+$10.85
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$31.49
Value
$33.84
PnL
+$2.35
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.63
Record
50%
6977-6973 (13950)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.