Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 253.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 1.6¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$20.06

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 1.6¢

-97% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,610

Combined PnL+$112.49

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,260

Combined PnL-$92.43

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 42.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$73.81	48% 805-879 (1684)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$71.58	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
GA gagarin59CTR	Overavg 56¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$18.19	52% 687-645 (1332)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$199.68	$229.2	+$29.52	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$115.72	$135.3	+$19.58
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.2¢	$83.96	$93.9	+$9.94
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Overavg 52¢	$144.04	$152.35	+$8.31	54% 1218-1024 (2242)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 45¢	$75.06	$116.76	+$41.7	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 61.4¢	$86.01	$77.11	-$8.9	55% 8268-6673 (14941)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 65.5¢	$29.46	$27.4	-$2.07	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 50¢	$24.5	$22.05	-$2.45	63% 8113-4855 (12968)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 36.8¢	$7.39	$3.79	-$0.26	57% 13705-10482 (24187)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.25	-$0.3	53% 6124-5371 (11495)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,447.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$73.81

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,167.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$71.58

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

gagarin59CTR

Over

Invested

$1,018.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$18.19

Record

52%

687-645 (1332)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$199.68

Value

$229.2

PnL

+$29.52

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

Both legs:

Over$115.7247¢+$19.58

Under$83.9640.2¢+$9.94

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Over

Invested

$144.04

Value

$152.35

PnL

+$8.31

Record

54%

1218-1024 (2242)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$75.06

Value

$116.76

PnL

+$41.7

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86.01

Value

$77.11

PnL

-$8.9

Record

55%

8268-6673 (14941)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.46

Value

$27.4

PnL

-$2.07

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$24.5

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$2.45

Record

63%

8113-4855 (12968)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.39

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.7%

1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3639.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

3739.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.