Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (91%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 249.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 9.3¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$353.46

Smart Money Entry

35.1¢ → 9.3¢

-73% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares9,178

Combined PnL-$106.67

Under3 traders

Total Value$298.48

Total Shares1,105

Combined PnL-$246.79

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 61.3¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$354.88	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Overavg 48¢	$500	$718.75	+$218.75	47% 313-354 (667)
latvian.demon	Underavg 49.5¢	$494.81	$250	-$244.81	54% 687-583 (1270)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$157.32	$169.25	+$11.93	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$111.26	$117.8	+$6.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$46.06	$51.45	+$5.39
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$122.54	$167.36	+$44.82	48% 805-879 (1684)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$89.52	$91.39	+$1.86	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Underavg 49¢	$45.08	$39.6	+$0.64	83% 2598-524 (3122)
OM omoi0i0CTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$36.69	$18.34	-$18.34	65% 1504-808 (2312)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 65.4¢	$9.63	$10.75	+$1.12	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
GA gagarin59<$100	Underavg 46¢	$11.5	$8.88	-$2.63	52% 687-645 (1332)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,470.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$354.88

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$718.75

PnL

+$218.75

Record

47%

313-354 (667)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$494.81

Value

$250

PnL

-$244.81

Record

54%

687-583 (1270)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$157.32

Value

$169.25

PnL

+$11.93

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

Both legs:

Under$111.2644.9¢+$6.54

Over$46.0647¢+$5.39

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$122.54

Value

$167.36

PnL

+$44.82

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.52

Value

$91.39

PnL

+$1.86

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

Dreamwire<$100

Under

Invested

$45.08

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$0.64

Record

83%

2598-524 (3122)

omoi0i0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.69

Value

$18.34

PnL

-$18.34

Record

65%

1504-808 (2312)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.63

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$1.12

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

gagarin59<$100

Under

Invested

$11.5

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$2.63

Record

52%

687-645 (1332)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.8%

9.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$824.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

924.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.