Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 245.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$391.53

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 80¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,878

Combined PnL+$391.72

Under1 trader

Total Value$4.01

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.19

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 59.6¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$350.81	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 45¢	$122.6	$98.69	+$43.52	48% 805-879 (1684)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 74.4¢	$39.89	$37.27	-$2.62	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$4.2	$4.01	-$0.19	57% 13705-10482 (24187)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,022.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$350.81

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$122.6

Value

$98.69

PnL

+$43.52

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$39.89

Value

$37.27

PnL

-$2.62

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.19

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.