Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 243.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 61¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$13.8K
$218.45
50.7¢ → 60.5¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 50¢ | $12.5K | $10.5K | +$4.3K | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
 NooseracCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $12.5K | $2.0K | $-4.3K | 52% 5769-5340 (11109) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 55.5¢ | $955.43 | $1.2K | +$224.74 | 53% 4003-3486 (7489) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 82.2¢ | $66.77 | $51.69 | -$15.08 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $0.51 | $0.82 | +$0.31 | 57% 13705-10482 (24187) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $0.8 | -$1.7 | 50% 7877-7901 (15778) |
Invested
$12,535.62
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$4.3K
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
NooseracCTRInvested
$12,509
Value
$2.0K
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
52%
5769-5340 (11109)
Invested
$955.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$224.74
Record
53%
4003-3486 (7489)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$66.77
Value
$51.69
PnL
-$15.08
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.82
PnL
+$0.31
Record
57%
13705-10482 (24187)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$1.7
Record
50%
7877-7901 (15778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.