Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 231.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$1.6K
-$2.54
48.3¢ → 49.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.08 | 54% 17065-14298 (31363) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $178.44 | $174.8 | -$3.64 | 54% 3281-2830 (6111) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $126.42 | $127.71 | +$1.29 | 50% 6944-6931 (13875) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5 | Underavg 51¢ | $116.4 | $117.6 | +$1.2 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $83.3 | $81.6 | -$1.7 | 53% 367-326 (693) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $10.42 | $7.07 | +$0.23 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
Invested
$1,099.32
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
17065-14298 (31363)
Invested
$178.44
Value
$174.8
PnL
-$3.64
Record
54%
3281-2830 (6111)
Invested
$126.42
Value
$127.71
PnL
+$1.29
Record
50%
6944-6931 (13875)
Invested
$116.4
Value
$117.6
PnL
+$1.2
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$83.3
Value
$81.6
PnL
-$1.7
Record
53%
367-326 (693)
Invested
$10.42
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$0.23
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.