Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Nuggets (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Suns (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (67%) · Suns at 1.0¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
6
Suns 67%
$1.9K
-$203.76
40.3¢ → 1¢
-98% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Sunsavg 44¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$390.42 | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Sunsavg 32.1¢ | $356.6 | $478.15 | +$121.56 | 53% 4003-3486 (7489) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000 | Nuggetsavg 58¢ | $249.48 | $309.7 | +$60.22 | 42% 2242-3040 (5282) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Nuggetsavg 67.7¢ | $29.41 | $34.24 | +$4.83 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 43¢ | $14.52 | $14.52 | +$0 | 63% 8113-4855 (12968) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.15 | +$0.05 | 53% 6124-5371 (11495) |
Invested
$1,074.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$390.42
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
Invested
$356.6
Value
$478.15
PnL
+$121.56
Record
53%
4003-3486 (7489)
Invested
$249.48
Value
$309.7
PnL
+$60.22
Record
42%
2242-3040 (5282)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$29.41
Value
$34.24
PnL
+$4.83
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$14.52
Value
$14.52
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
8113-4855 (12968)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
6124-5371 (11495)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.