Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (50%) · Suns at 60¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 31

Nuggets40¢Suns60¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$229.5

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 60¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets40%

Suns60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns3 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares21,745

Combined PnL-$373.4

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$547.96

Total Shares1,202

Combined PnL+$143.9

Suns — 50%Nuggets — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanaz	Sunsavg 62¢	$12.6K	$12.2K	-$405.87	52% 664-618 (1282)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 56.1¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$106.86	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 56.1¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$83.97
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 47.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$22.88
UP UpTheBlues	Sunsavg 44.8¢	$633.26	$664.46	+$31.2	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
TO torta.techCTR	Nuggetsavg 29¢	$290	$430	+$140	63% 8113-4855 (12968)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Sunsavg 46.7¢	$207.61	$205	-$2.61	48% 805-879 (1684)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 51.2¢	$93.86	$113.72	+$19.86
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 46.7¢	$113.75	$91.28	-$22.47
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 64.9¢	$98.56	$96.46	-$2.1	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 31¢	$15.5	$21.5	+$6	53% 6124-5371 (11495)
HRTrading<$100	Sunsavg 43.6¢	$17.85	$19.12	+$1.27	52% 4302-3911 (8213)

ethanaz

Suns

Invested

$12,582.05

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$405.87

Record

52%

664-618 (1282)

takeormakeARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2,752.62

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$106.86

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

Both legs:

Nuggets$1,500.7756.1¢-$83.97

Suns$1,251.8547.9¢-$22.88

UpTheBlues

Suns

Invested

$633.26

Value

$664.46

PnL

+$31.2

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

torta.techCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$290

Value

$430

PnL

+$140

Record

63%

8113-4855 (12968)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$207.61

Value

$205

PnL

-$2.61

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

Both legs:

Nuggets$93.8651.2¢+$19.86

Suns$113.7546.7¢-$22.47

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$98.56

Value

$96.46

PnL

-$2.1

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$15.5

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$6

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

HRTrading<$100

Suns

Invested

$17.85

Value

$19.12

PnL

+$1.27

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.