Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (55%) · Suns at 50¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 31

Nuggets50¢Suns50¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 50.3¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets50%

Suns50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns6 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares24,193

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Nuggets5 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares13,160

Combined PnL-$219.85

Suns — 55%Nuggets — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSuns 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sunsavg 52.8¢	$5.6K	$5.9K	+$336.19	48% 805-879 (1684)
OL olegio	Sunsavg 36¢	$3.6K	$5.5K	+$1.9K	44% 415-534 (949)
NooseracCTR	Nuggetsavg 47¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$250	52% 5769-5340 (11109)
TA takeormakeCTR	Nuggetsavg 60.3¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$27.16	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Sunsavg 58¢	$433.26	$410.85	-$18.68	53% 5590-4952 (10542)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Nuggetsavg 62.9¢	$379.9	$380.22	+$0.32	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
UP UpTheBlues	Sunsavg 45.9¢	$421.49	$339.77	-$81.72	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
NA NatoAlfista	Sunsavg 55.8¢	$130.43	$128.59	-$1.84	50% 3813-3770 (7583)
HRTradingARB<$100	Sunsavg 40.3¢	$101.48	$109.24	+$7.76	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 45.7¢	$39.93	$58.12	+$18.19
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 40.3¢	$61.55	$51.12	-$10.43
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 41¢	$32.39	$37.92	+$2.76	50% 6989-6984 (13973)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Sunsavg 59¢	$23.21	$21.64	-$0.2	38% 385-628 (1013)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.5	-$0.1	50% 7877-7901 (15778)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Suns

Invested

$5,562.37

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$336.19

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

olegio

Suns

Invested

$3,600

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

44%

415-534 (949)

NooseracCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$4,700

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$250

Record

52%

5769-5340 (11109)

takeormakeCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$2,578.66

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$27.16

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Suns

Invested

$433.26

Value

$410.85

PnL

-$18.68

Record

53%

5590-4952 (10542)

justaluckydudeCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$379.9

Value

$380.22

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

UpTheBlues

Suns

Invested

$421.49

Value

$339.77

PnL

-$81.72

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

NatoAlfista

Suns

Invested

$130.43

Value

$128.59

PnL

-$1.84

Record

50%

3813-3770 (7583)

HRTradingARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$101.48

Value

$109.24

PnL

+$7.76

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

Both legs:

Nuggets$39.9345.7¢+$18.19

Suns$61.5540.3¢-$10.43

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$32.39

Value

$37.92

PnL

+$2.76

Record

50%

6989-6984 (13973)

Oddstorm<$100

Suns

Invested

$23.21

Value

$21.64

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

385-628 (1013)

RLWGCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

7877-7901 (15778)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Suns

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSuns 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.5%

50.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$90.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

190.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.