Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Suns, while the market favors Nuggets (60%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (33%) · Suns at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
6
Suns 33%
$1.6K
$9.91
41¢ → 40.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Sunsavg 41¢ | $993.84 | $1.0K | +$12.12 | 62% 4127-2523 (6650) |
 VeryLucky888 | Nuggetsavg 59¢ | $295 | $292.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 41637-30243 (71880) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Nuggetsavg 59¢ | $124.5 | $125.56 | +$1.06 | 53% 5582-4951 (10533) |
38 38791873984189 | Nuggetsavg 59¢ | $122.72 | $121.68 | -$1.04 | 46% 8113-9541 (17654) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 40¢ | $27.72 | $28.07 | +$0.35 | 54% 56399-48569 (104968) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Nuggetsavg 59¢ | $8.26 | $8.19 | -$0.07 | 58% 28489-21037 (49526) |
Invested
$993.84
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$12.12
Record
62%
4127-2523 (6650)
VeryLucky888Invested
$295
Value
$292.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
41637-30243 (71880)
Invested
$124.5
Value
$125.56
PnL
+$1.06
Record
53%
5582-4951 (10533)
Invested
$122.72
Value
$121.68
PnL
-$1.04
Record
46%
8113-9541 (17654)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$27.72
Value
$28.07
PnL
+$0.35
Record
54%
56399-48569 (104968)
Invested
$8.26
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
28489-21037 (49526)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.