Nuggets vs. Suns

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (44%) · Nuggets at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31

Nuggets64¢Suns36¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$39.53

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 63.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets64%

Suns37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$739.46

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL+$38.93

Suns5 traders

Total Value$329.11

Total Shares840

Combined PnL+$0.6

Nuggets — 44%Suns — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNuggets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Nuggetsavg 55¢	$504.58	$568.8	+$41.28	89% 242-31 (273)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sunsavg 37.8¢	$194.32	$195.43	+$1.1	—
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Nuggetsavg 63¢	$157.1	$154.6	-$2.49	53% 383-337 (720)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Sunsavg 37¢	$46.17	$47.42	+$1.25	54% 3276-2828 (6104)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Sunsavg 39¢	$38.61	$37.62	-$0.99	38% 366-600 (966)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sunsavg 40.6¢	$30	$28.72	-$1.28	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Sunsavg 37¢	$19.4	$19.92	+$0.52	53% 11512-10014 (21526)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Nuggetsavg 62¢	$11.74	$11.74	+$0	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
BA Bayupati<$100	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$4.17	$4.31	+$0.14	52% 218-205 (423)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Nuggets

Invested

$504.58

Value

$568.8

PnL

+$41.28

Record

89%

242-31 (273)

38791873984189CTR

Suns

Invested

$194.32

Value

$195.43

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Nuggets

Invested

$157.1

Value

$154.6

PnL

-$2.49

Record

53%

383-337 (720)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$46.17

Value

$47.42

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

3276-2828 (6104)

OddstormCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$38.61

Value

$37.62

PnL

-$0.99

Record

38%

366-600 (966)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$30

Value

$28.72

PnL

-$1.28

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$11.74

Value

$11.74

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

Bayupati<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

218-205 (423)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNuggets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.