Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$3.58

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,824

Combined PnL-$27.26

Under5 traders

Total Value$537.46

Total Shares1,082

Combined PnL+$30.84

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Overavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$25.77	59% 2601-1831 (4432)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 46¢	$460	$490	+$30	53% 5485-4833 (10318)
RollAwayTheDew	Overavg 54¢	$121.01	$122.13	+$1.12	52% 307-281 (588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$32.1	$32.28	+$0.17	58% 28040-20670 (48710)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54¢	$250	$12.01	-$2.61	58% 40677-29411 (70088)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.8	+$0.4	56% 6870-5503 (12373)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.82	$2.94	+$0.12	49% 1118-1145 (2263)
2D 0x2da3...f258CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.45	+$0.15	49% 1874-1975 (3849)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$1,340.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$25.77

Record

59%

2601-1831 (4432)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$460

Value

$490

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

5485-4833 (10318)

RollAwayTheDew

Over

Invested

$121.01

Value

$122.13

PnL

+$1.12

Record

52%

307-281 (588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.1

Value

$32.28

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

28040-20670 (48710)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$250

Value

$12.01

PnL

-$2.61

Record

58%

40677-29411 (70088)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

6870-5503 (12373)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

1118-1145 (2263)

0x2da3...f258CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

1874-1975 (3849)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.