Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Over59¢Under41¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$7.28

Smart Money Entry

43.1¢ → 41.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,230

Combined PnL-$7.28

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$3.12	54% 16861-14141 (31002)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43.9¢	$117.54	$113.71	-$3.84	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$15.66	$15.3	-$0.36	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$5.04	$5.1	+$0.06	50% 6811-6825 (13636)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.07	-$0.03	47% 2038-2342 (4380)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,671.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$3.12

Record

54%

16861-14141 (31002)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$117.54

Value

$113.71

PnL

-$3.84

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.66

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$0.36

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

6811-6825 (13636)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.