Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (25%) · Nuggets at 64¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 29

Nuggets64¢Pelicans36¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$589.26

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets64%

Pelicans37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets1 trader

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,989

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$683.51

Total Shares2,848

Combined PnL-$672.64

Nuggets — 25%Pelicans — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Nuggetsavg 50.3¢	$4.6K	$5.8K	+$1.3K	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 53.6¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$98.71	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 53.6¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$425.88
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 50¢	$1.0K	$484.4	-$524.59
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pelicansavg 47.5¢	$1.3K	$677.7	-$664.73	49% 559-583 (1142)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 57¢	$11.4	$4.8	-$6.6	50% 6821-6834 (13655)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 55¢	$2.31	$1.01	-$1.3	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

HomeRunHazard

Nuggets

Invested

$4,581.61

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Anon455ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2,026.73

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$98.71

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Nuggets$1,017.7453.6¢+$425.88

Pelicans$1,008.9950¢-$524.59

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,342.43

Value

$677.7

PnL

-$664.73

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$11.4

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$6.6

Record

50%

6821-6834 (13655)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.31

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$1.3

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.