Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (40%) · Pelicans at 57¢ · $983 held · ends Oct 29

Nuggets43¢Pelicans57¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 40%

Total Value

$982.99

Combined PnL

$6.8

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 57.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets43%

Pelicans57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans2 traders

Total Value$895.66

Total Shares1,565

Combined PnL+$7.82

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$87.33

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$1.02

Pelicans — 40%Nuggets — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Pelicansavg 56¢	$466.09	$474.42	+$4.16	54% 375-322 (697)
TA takeormake	Pelicansavg 57¢	$417.58	$421.25	+$3.66	54% 3823-3297 (7120)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 43¢	$39.56	$39.1	-$0.46	38% 848-1408 (2256)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$35.27	$34.47	-$0.4	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 44¢	$14.08	$13.76	-$0.16	58% 28122-20727 (48849)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Pelicans

Invested

$466.09

Value

$474.42

PnL

+$4.16

Record

54%

375-322 (697)

takeormake

Pelicans

Invested

$417.58

Value

$421.25

PnL

+$3.66

Record

54%

3823-3297 (7120)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$39.56

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$0.46

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$35.27

Value

$34.47

PnL

-$0.4

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$14.08

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

28122-20727 (48849)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.