Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Pelicans (54%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (83%) · Nuggets at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
6
Nuggets 83%
$1.1K
-$5.79
47.7¢ → 46.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Nuggetsavg 47.6¢ | $658.83 | $623.02 | -$2.27 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Pelicansavg 52.4¢ | $438.99 | $435.84 | -$3.15 | 54% 371-322 (693) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 47.6¢ | $38.55 | $38.48 | -$0.07 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 49¢ | $13.23 | $12.96 | -$0.27 | — |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 48¢ | $4.32 | $4.32 | +$0 | 52% 307-281 (588) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.38 | -$0.02 | 49% 1874-1975 (3849) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$658.83
Value
$623.02
PnL
-$2.27
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
Invested
$438.99
Value
$435.84
PnL
-$3.15
Record
54%
371-322 (693)
Invested
$38.55
Value
$38.48
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$13.23
Value
$12.96
PnL
-$0.27
Record
—
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.32
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
307-281 (588)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
1874-1975 (3849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.