Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pelicans, while the market favors Nuggets (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (60%) · Pelicans at 45¢ · $208 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Pelicans
5
Pelicans 60%
$207.84
$1.34
44.1¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPelicans at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Pelicansavg 44¢ | $112.92 | $112.92 | +$1.28 | 53% 5495-4840 (10335) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 44¢ | $50.6 | $50.6 | +$0 | 52% 308-285 (593) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 44.5¢ | $37.77 | $37.7 | +$0 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Nuggetsavg 55¢ | $3.85 | $3.85 | +$0.04 | 50% 6790-6820 (13610) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Nuggetsavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.78 | +$0.03 | 47% 2037-2339 (4376) |
Invested
$112.92
Value
$112.92
PnL
+$1.28
Record
53%
5495-4840 (10335)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$50.6
Value
$50.6
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
308-285 (593)
Invested
$37.77
Value
$37.7
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
6790-6820 (13610)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2037-2339 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.