Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (67%) · Nuggets at 56¢ · $564 held · ends Oct 29

Nuggets56¢Pelicans44¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 67%

Total Value

$563.88

Combined PnL

-$4.67

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 56.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets56%

Pelicans44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$377.4

Total Shares528

Combined PnL+$6.8

Pelicans2 traders

Total Value$186.48

Total Shares460

Combined PnL-$11.48

Nuggets — 67%Pelicans — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$223.42	$223.98	+$0.56	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pelicansavg 43¢	$196.49	$185.06	-$11.42	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
RN1	Nuggetsavg 57¢	$142.5	$148.75	+$6.25	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nuggetsavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.82	-$0.03	47% 2056-2353 (4409)
VeryLucky888<$100	Nuggetsavg 56¢	$1.83	$1.85	+$0.02	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 42¢	$1.47	$1.42	-$0.05	53% 3080-2737 (5817)

HomeRunHazard

Nuggets

Invested

$223.42

Value

$223.98

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$196.49

Value

$185.06

PnL

-$11.42

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

RN1

Nuggets

Invested

$142.5

Value

$148.75

PnL

+$6.25

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2056-2353 (4409)

VeryLucky888<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$1.83

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.