Spread: Nuggets (-16.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (67%) · Pelicans at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Pelicans
3
Pelicans 67%
$1.5K
$15.26
56¢ → 87¢
+55% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPelicans at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Pelicansavg 58¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$31.77 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Pelicansavg 50.5¢ | $281.44 | $328.81 | +$47.37 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Nuggetsavg 42¢ | $14.28 | $13.94 | -$0.34 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.