Nuggets vs. Pelicans
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (40%) · Nuggets at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
5
Nuggets 40%
2 arb excluded
$1.0K
$6.76
65¢ → 64.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Pelicansavg 34.9¢ | $874.35 | $315.97 | +$7.54 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
SA SapporoAsahi | Nuggetsavg 65¢ | $276.45 | $275.09 | +$2.1 | 35% 92-168 (260) |
BU BullishBarbARB<$100 | Nuggetsavg 66¢ | $174.4 | $183.59 | +$9.19 | 1% 4-285 (289) |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 66¢ | $109.23 | $106.75 | -$2.48 | |
| └ Pelicans leg | Pelicansavg 30.1¢ | $65.16 | $76.85 | +$11.68 | |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Nuggetsavg 65¢ | $100.1 | $100.1 | +$0 | 54% 2919-2505 (5424) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 35.9¢ | $71.88 | $69 | -$2.88 | 50% 3892-3871 (7763) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Pelicansavg 35¢ | $52.97 | $53.1 | +$0.13 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
| └ Pelicans leg | Pelicansavg 35¢ | $29.05 | $29.05 | -$0 | |
| └ Nuggets leg | Nuggetsavg 64.6¢ | $23.92 | $24.05 | +$0.13 | |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 35¢ | $9.59 | $9.59 | -$0 | 53% 15728-13898 (29626) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$874.35
Value
$315.97
PnL
+$7.54
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
Invested
$276.45
Value
$275.09
PnL
+$2.1
Record
35%
92-168 (260)
Invested
$174.4
Value
$183.59
PnL
+$9.19
Record
1%
4-285 (289)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.1
Value
$100.1
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2919-2505 (5424)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$71.88
Value
$69
PnL
-$2.88
Record
50%
3892-3871 (7763)
Invested
$52.97
Value
$53.1
PnL
+$0.13
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.59
Value
$9.59
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
15728-13898 (29626)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.