Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 55¢ · $317 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 17%
$316.66
$0.05
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 56¢ | $189.79 | $189.79 | +$0 | 70% 1671-717 (2388) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $106.92 | $106.92 | +$0 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $11 | $11 | +$0 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $4.55 | +$0.05 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.2 | +$0 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.2 | +$0 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$189.79
Value
$189.79
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
1671-717 (2388)
Invested
$106.92
Value
$106.92
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$11
Value
$11
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.