Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (20%) · Grizzlies at 54¢ · $422 held · ends Nov 12

Nuggets47¢Grizzlies53¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 20%

Total Value

$422.16

Combined PnL

$1.84

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets47%

Grizzlies54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies1 trader

Total Value$172.59

Total Shares275

Combined PnL-$1.38

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$249.57

Total Shares429

Combined PnL+$3.22

Grizzlies — 20%Nuggets — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$173.97	$172.59	-$1.38	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
38 38791873984189CTR	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$152.37	$153.96	+$1.59	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 47¢	$40.1	$41.81	+$1.71	45% 262-316 (578)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 46.9¢	$39.17	$38.79	-$0.37	52% 445-417 (862)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 48¢	$17.31	$15.01	+$0.3	48% 659-706 (1365)

HomeRunHazard

Grizzlies

Invested

$173.97

Value

$172.59

PnL

-$1.38

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

38791873984189CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$152.37

Value

$153.96

PnL

+$1.59

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$40.1

Value

$41.81

PnL

+$1.71

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$39.17

Value

$38.79

PnL

-$0.37

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$17.31

Value

$15.01

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.