Nuggets vs. Pacers

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (44%) · Nuggets at 72¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

Nuggets72¢Pacers28¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 44%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$5.8

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 71.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets72%

Pacers28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets7 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares10,099

Combined PnL-$47.82

Pacers9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares9,659

Combined PnL+$42.02

Nuggets — 44%Pacers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Nuggetsavg 73¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$42.25	46% 8704-10375 (19079)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pacersavg 28.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$4.91	54% 18314-15419 (33733)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pacersavg 28¢	$420	$442.5	+$22.5	58% 47297-34106 (81403)
65 6512395314597884	Nuggetsavg 70.1¢	$315.26	$310.44	-$4.81	51% 4834-4701 (9535)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pacersavg 30¢	$251.62	$251.4	+$4.37	52% 4963-4513 (9476)
HI hi774cCTR	Pacersavg 28¢	$241.88	$246.19	+$4.32	46% 5268-6113 (11381)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pacersavg 28¢	$173.88	$176.98	+$3.1	48% 62067-66946 (129013)
OD Oddstorm	Nuggetsavg 69.3¢	$112.38	$112.83	+$0.45	48% 7431-7968 (15399)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Nuggetsavg 69¢	$89.5	$89.5	+$0	64% 2024-1128 (3152)
PU purplegatto<$100	Nuggetsavg 71¢	$62.45	$62.85	+$0.4	49% 6360-6522 (12882)
PA Pan9XCTR	Pacersavg 29.1¢	$127.73	$31.97	+$3.28	54% 10172-8548 (18720)
FO forecastication4<$100	Nuggetsavg 68¢	$21.76	$22.08	+$0.32	50% 1397-1400 (2797)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Pacersavg 29¢	$17.4	$17.1	-$0.3	53% 24131-21178 (45309)
GA Gaditima<$100	Nuggetsavg 78.2¢	$19.13	$16.87	-$1.92	47% 7476-8278 (15754)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Pacersavg 29¢	$8.03	$7.89	-$0.14	53% 2663-2346 (5009)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pacersavg 29¢	$1.72	$1.69	-$0.03	58% 21569-15650 (37219)

nigiri99

Nuggets

Invested

$6,721.05

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$42.25

Record

46%

8704-10375 (19079)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$2,005.26

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$4.91

Record

54%

18314-15419 (33733)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pacers

Invested

$420

Value

$442.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

58%

47297-34106 (81403)

6512395314597884

Nuggets

Invested

$315.26

Value

$310.44

PnL

-$4.81

Record

51%

4834-4701 (9535)

takeormakeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$251.62

Value

$251.4

PnL

+$4.37

Record

52%

4963-4513 (9476)

hi774cCTR

Pacers

Invested

$241.88

Value

$246.19

PnL

+$4.32

Record

46%

5268-6113 (11381)

38791873984189CTR

Pacers

Invested

$173.88

Value

$176.98

PnL

+$3.1

Record

48%

62067-66946 (129013)

Oddstorm

Nuggets

Invested

$112.38

Value

$112.83

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

7431-7968 (15399)

darkumbreon88<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$89.5

Value

$89.5

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2024-1128 (3152)

purplegatto<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$62.45

Value

$62.85

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

6360-6522 (12882)

Pan9XCTR

Pacers

Invested

$127.73

Value

$31.97

PnL

+$3.28

Record

54%

10172-8548 (18720)

forecastication4<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$21.76

Value

$22.08

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

1397-1400 (2797)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

24131-21178 (45309)

Gaditima<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$19.13

Value

$16.87

PnL

-$1.92

Record

47%

7476-8278 (15754)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$8.03

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

2663-2346 (5009)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

21569-15650 (37219)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.