Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 57¢ · $333 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
$332.99
$2.97
59.8¢ → 57.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 60¢ | $261.97 | $148.01 | -$9.27 | 49% 388-405 (793) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 41¢ | $130.99 | $138.98 | +$7.99 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $28.11 | $15.61 | -$0.34 | 48% 174-190 (364) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $9.85 | $14.78 | +$4.93 | 48% 32-35 (67) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $9.15 | $8.68 | -$0.46 | 53% 87-77 (164) |
AU auros2<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $3.46 | $3.4 | -$0.06 | — |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $5 | $2.18 | +$0.23 | 26% 89-254 (343) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $1.39 | $1.36 | -$0.04 | 54% 235-203 (438) |
Invested
$261.97
Value
$148.01
PnL
-$9.27
Record
49%
388-405 (793)
Invested
$130.99
Value
$138.98
PnL
+$7.99
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
Invested
$28.11
Value
$15.61
PnL
-$0.34
Record
48%
174-190 (364)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$14.78
PnL
+$4.93
Record
48%
32-35 (67)
Invested
$9.15
Value
$8.68
PnL
-$0.46
Record
53%
87-77 (164)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.06
Record
—
Invested
$5
Value
$2.18
PnL
+$0.23
Record
26%
89-254 (343)
RN1<$100Invested
$1.39
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
235-203 (438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.