Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$23.17

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 47.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,403

Combined PnL-$61.8

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,465

Combined PnL+$84.97

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 53.7¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$63.47	43% 26-35 (61)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$79.23	30% 29-67 (96)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$355	$356.25	+$1.25	54% 230-199 (429)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$176.75	$178.62	+$1.87	6% 11-164 (175)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	5% 11-190 (201)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47	$47.5	+$0.5	49% 377-392 (769)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$21.83	$22.24	+$0.35	48% 171-185 (356)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 40¢	$11.81	$12.92	+$1.11	24% 87-279 (366)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$5.77	$3.5	+$0.29	53% 85-74 (159)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.63	+$0.28	48% 128-136 (264)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.37	+$0.02	17% 39-184 (223)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,881.15

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$63.47

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,314.51

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$79.23

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$355

Value

$356.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$176.75

Value

$178.62

PnL

+$1.87

Record

11-164 (175)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

11-190 (201)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.83

Value

$22.24

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

171-185 (356)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$11.81

Value

$12.92

PnL

+$1.11

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$5.77

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.28

Record

48%

128-136 (264)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.02

Record

17%

39-184 (223)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.