Spread: Rockets (-1.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (27%) · Rockets at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets60¢Nuggets40¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$90.72

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 59.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets60%

Nuggets41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets8 traders

Total Value$656.58

Total Shares1,583

Combined PnL+$137.89

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$556.32

Total Shares943

Combined PnL-$47.17

Nuggets — 73%Rockets — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rockets) and the top 1000 (11 on Nuggets) disagree here.

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 69.4¢	$751.11	$612.41	-$79.7	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 69.4¢	$465.19	$398.57	-$77.06
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 41¢	$216.48	$213.84	-$2.64
LI LightParadoxCTR	Nuggetsavg 31.8¢	$245.09	$319.95	+$74.86	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Rocketsavg 59¢	$260.74	$262.95	+$2.21	—
RN1	Rocketsavg 68¢	$297.49	$255.93	-$41.56	—
nigiri99CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 37¢	$77.28	$86.74	+$9.46	—
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 34¢	$69.7	$85.08	+$15.38	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 32¢	$58.07	$75.31	+$17.24	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 32¢	$50.2	$65.1	+$14.9	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Rocketsavg 69¢	$51.75	$37.44	-$7.82	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 29¢	$8.16	$11.67	+$3.52	—
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 31¢	$8.06	$10.4	+$2.34	—
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 38¢	$2.14	$2.34	+$0.2	—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$751.11

Value

$612.41

PnL

-$79.7

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$465.1969.4¢-$77.06

Nuggets$216.4841¢-$2.64

LightParadoxCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$245.09

Value

$319.95

PnL

+$74.86

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Rockets

Invested

$260.74

Value

$262.95

PnL

+$2.21

Record

—

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$297.49

Value

$255.93

PnL

-$41.56

Record

—

nigiri99CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$77.28

Value

$86.74

PnL

+$9.46

Record

—

purplegattoCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$69.7

Value

$85.08

PnL

+$15.38

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$58.07

Value

$75.31

PnL

+$17.24

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$50.2

Value

$65.1

PnL

+$14.9

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Rockets

Invested

$51.75

Value

$37.44

PnL

-$7.82

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$8.16

Value

$11.67

PnL

+$3.52

Record

—

hithitfarCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$8.06

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$2.34

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rockets) and the top 1000 (11 on Nuggets) disagree here.

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.