Nuggets vs. Rockets

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (64%) · Rockets at 75¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 10

Nuggets26¢Rockets74¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 64%

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

-$104.23

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets26%

Rockets75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets7 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares14,692

Combined PnL+$81.62

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares9,396

Combined PnL-$185.85

Rockets — 64%Nuggets — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Rocketsavg 74¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$35.85	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
VeryLucky888	Rocketsavg 74¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
HI hi774cCTR	Nuggetsavg 36.7¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$205.81	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
38 38791873984189	Rocketsavg 74¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	+$11.59	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
SE sentrio	Rocketsavg 74¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$9.64	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Nuggetsavg 37.7¢	$1.4K	$876.53	+$21.55	54% 593-502 (1095)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Rocketsavg 50¢	$300	$236.25	+$1.25	56% 195-152 (347)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 25¢	$84.96	$86.66	+$1.7	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
PA Pan9X	Rocketsavg 73¢	$332.3	$76.71	+$8.14	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 36.9¢	$35.39	$32.1	-$3.29	48% 281-299 (580)
0xheavy888<$100	Rocketsavg 74¢	$22.2	$22.35	+$0.15	56% 8780-6967 (15747)

HomeRunHazard

Rockets

Invested

$5,427.52

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$35.85

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

VeryLucky888

Rockets

Invested

$2,219.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

hi774cCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$2,331.04

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$205.81

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

38791873984189

Rockets

Invested

$2,431.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.59

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

sentrio

Rockets

Invested

$1,426.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$9.64

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$1,383.29

Value

$876.53

PnL

+$21.55

Record

54%

593-502 (1095)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Rockets

Invested

$300

Value

$236.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

195-152 (347)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$84.96

Value

$86.66

PnL

+$1.7

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Pan9X

Rockets

Invested

$332.3

Value

$76.71

PnL

+$8.14

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$35.39

Value

$32.1

PnL

-$3.29

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

0xheavy888<$100

Rockets

Invested

$22.2

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.