Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Timberwolves (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (60%) · Mavericks at 37¢ · $362 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
5
Mavericks 60%
1 arb excluded
$362.01
$6.07
34.5¢ → 36.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 66.7¢ | $188.92 | $188.69 | -$0.23 | 23% 36-120 (156) |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 66.7¢ | $113.46 | $108.06 | -$5.4 | |
| └ Mavericks leg | Mavericksavg 34.2¢ | $75.46 | $80.63 | +$5.17 | |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 34.8¢ | $88.08 | $92.49 | +$4.41 | 69% 2587-1181 (3768) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 66.1¢ | $32.86 | $33.14 | +$0.28 | 50% 3299-3255 (6554) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 33.2¢ | $20.9 | $23.28 | +$2.39 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 65¢ | $23.55 | $22.56 | -$0.99 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 37¢ | $1.87 | $1.85 | -$0.03 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
Invested
$188.92
Value
$188.69
PnL
-$0.23
Record
23%
36-120 (156)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.08
Value
$92.49
PnL
+$4.41
Record
69%
2587-1181 (3768)
Invested
$32.86
Value
$33.14
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
3299-3255 (6554)
Invested
$20.9
Value
$23.28
PnL
+$2.39
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$23.55
Value
$22.56
PnL
-$0.99
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.03
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.