Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$172.99

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 53.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,736

Combined PnL+$163.11

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,032

Combined PnL+$9.88

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Underavg 46.5¢	$930.83	$1.1K	+$139.17	48% 278-299 (577)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.3¢	$816.98	$836.13	+$19.15	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 53¢	$403.79	$411.41	+$7.62	22% 179-619 (798)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 53.5¢	$317.23	$310.79	+$7.25	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 47¢	$264.26	$261.45	-$2.81	36% 950-1657 (2607)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$54.61	$53.18	-$1.43	35% 162-305 (467)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$34.33	$39.41	+$5.08	37% 985-1642 (2627)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 54¢	$32.23	$31.93	-$0.3	46% 497-591 (1088)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$39.99	$31.46	+$0.87	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$39.42	$24.37	-$1.21	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 45¢	$17.75	$17.75	+$0	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$10.6	$11	+$0.4	54% 503-421 (924)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.6	+$0	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$4.76	$3.95	-$0.81	46% 2702-3200 (5902)

Gaditima

Under

Invested

$930.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$139.17

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$816.98

Value

$836.13

PnL

+$19.15

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$403.79

Value

$411.41

PnL

+$7.62

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$317.23

Value

$310.79

PnL

+$7.25

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$264.26

Value

$261.45

PnL

-$2.81

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.61

Value

$53.18

PnL

-$1.43

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$34.33

Value

$39.41

PnL

+$5.08

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$32.23

Value

$31.93

PnL

-$0.3

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.99

Value

$31.46

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.42

Value

$24.37

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$17.75

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.6

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.81

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.