Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (22%) · Mavericks at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Cavaliers42¢Mavericks58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 22%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$57.92

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 58.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers42%

Mavericks59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,858

Combined PnL+$71.1

Cavaliers7 traders

Total Value$618.8

Total Shares1,425

Combined PnL-$13.18

Mavericks — 22%Cavaliers — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (4 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Mavericksavg 56.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$54.38	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Mavericksavg 53¢	$295.26	$311.97	+$16.71	41% 26-38 (64)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 45.7¢	$248.12	$230.86	-$17.25	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
GC GC-PCTR	Cavaliersavg 41¢	$154.34	$159.88	+$5.54	37% 353-603 (956)
NM NM-PCTR	Cavaliersavg 41¢	$143.5	$148.75	+$5.25	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$47.61	$45.95	-$1.66	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cavaliersavg 46.1¢	$299.3	$16.35	-$3.95	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 45.6¢	$15.95	$14.87	-$1.08	50% 1586-1610 (3196)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.13	-$0.02	41% 689-1008 (1697)

HomeRunHazard

Mavericks

Invested

$2,112.2

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$54.38

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Mavericks

Invested

$295.26

Value

$311.97

PnL

+$16.71

Record

41%

26-38 (64)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$248.12

Value

$230.86

PnL

-$17.25

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

GC-PCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$154.34

Value

$159.88

PnL

+$5.54

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

NM-PCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$143.5

Value

$148.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

suntoriCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$47.61

Value

$45.95

PnL

-$1.66

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

38791873984189CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$299.3

Value

$16.35

PnL

-$3.95

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$15.95

Value

$14.87

PnL

-$1.08

Record

50%

1586-1610 (3196)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

689-1008 (1697)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cavaliers) and the top 1000 (4 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.