Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5
7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 51¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
14
Over 50%
$19.2K
$202.13
51¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $7.6K | $7.7K | +$88.66 | 56% 3932-3108 (7040) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $4.9K | $5.0K | +$50 | 50% 763-749 (1512) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$26.82 | 68% 2684-1270 (3954) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.33 | 44% 350-441 (791) |
0X 0x0A77exmm | Overavg 51¢ | $562.53 | $568.05 | +$5.51 | 45% 74-92 (166) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 51¢ | $510 | $515 | +$5 | 43% 578-773 (1351) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 51¢ | $510 | $515 | +$5 | 59% 3973-2751 (6724) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 51¢ | $397.57 | $401.47 | +$3.9 | 46% 1242-1436 (2678) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 52¢ | $269.4 | $269.6 | +$0.2 | 56% 695-541 (1236) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $58.71 | $59.74 | +$1.03 | 38% 1437-2313 (3750) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $41.97 | $42.86 | +$0.89 | 38% 1414-2288 (3702) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.7¢ | $20.9 | $12.5 | -$0.24 | 50% 2219-2233 (4452) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $5.96 | $5.84 | -$0.12 | 53% 2392-2134 (4526) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $1.54 | $1.68 | +$0.14 | 48% 4069-4469 (8538) |
Invested
$7,630.59
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$88.66
Record
56%
3932-3108 (7040)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$4,900
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$50
Record
50%
763-749 (1512)
Invested
$2,628.83
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$26.82
Record
68%
2684-1270 (3954)
Invested
$1,502.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.33
Record
44%
350-441 (791)
Invested
$562.53
Value
$568.05
PnL
+$5.51
Record
45%
74-92 (166)
Invested
$510
Value
$515
PnL
+$5
Record
43%
578-773 (1351)
Invested
$510
Value
$515
PnL
+$5
Record
59%
3973-2751 (6724)
Invested
$397.57
Value
$401.47
PnL
+$3.9
Record
46%
1242-1436 (2678)
0xheavy888Invested
$269.4
Value
$269.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
695-541 (1236)
Invested
$58.71
Value
$59.74
PnL
+$1.03
Record
38%
1437-2313 (3750)
Invested
$41.97
Value
$42.86
PnL
+$0.89
Record
38%
1414-2288 (3702)
Invested
$20.9
Value
$12.5
PnL
-$0.24
Record
50%
2219-2233 (4452)
Invested
$5.96
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
2392-2134 (4526)
Invested
$1.54
Value
$1.68
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
4069-4469 (8538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.