Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Celtics (82%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mavericks vs. Celtics

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (40%) · Mavericks at 19¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 15

Mavericks19¢Celtics81¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 40%

Total Value

$365.94

Combined PnL

$4.52

Smart Money Entry

18.2¢ → 18.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks19%

Celtics82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$255.45

Total Shares1,397

Combined PnL+$0.25

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$110.49

Total Shares123

Combined PnL+$4.27

Mavericks — 40%Celtics — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegattoCTR	Mavericksavg 18.3¢	$180.01	$181.58	+$1.58	68% 2657-1243 (3900)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 77.1¢	$55.73	$38.44	+$1.43	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
funnydayCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 17.8¢	$35.58	$35.58	+$0	23% 7-24 (31)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 17.9¢	$62.9	$32.24	-$1.51	35% 128-233 (361)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Celticsavg 83¢	$32.24	$31.99	-$0.25	44% 290-365 (655)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Celticsavg 66.6¢	$14.79	$18.31	+$3.52	50% 3962-3959 (7921)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Celticsavg 84.3¢	$11.42	$11.18	-$0.24	62% 251-153 (404)
HY hydra1248<$100	Celticsavg 84¢	$6.95	$6.83	-$0.12	75% 207-68 (275)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 17¢	$5.88	$6.05	+$0.17	47% 1088-1236 (2324)
SU suntori<$100	Celticsavg 83¢	$3.8	$3.73	-$0.07	46% 2978-3516 (6494)

purplegattoCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$180.01

Value

$181.58

PnL

+$1.58

Record

68%

2657-1243 (3900)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$55.73

Value

$38.44

PnL

+$1.43

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

funnydayCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$35.58

Value

$35.58

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

OddstormCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$62.9

Value

$32.24

PnL

-$1.51

Record

35%

128-233 (361)

Forecastication2<$100

Celtics

Invested

$32.24

Value

$31.99

PnL

-$0.25

Record

44%

290-365 (655)

6512395314597884<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14.79

Value

$18.31

PnL

+$3.52

Record

50%

3962-3959 (7921)

thatsabing0<$100

Celtics

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$0.24

Record

62%

251-153 (404)

hydra1248<$100

Celtics

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$0.12

Record

75%

207-68 (275)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$0.17

Record

47%

1088-1236 (2324)

suntori<$100

Celtics

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.