Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.0K
-$14.2
52.7¢ → 52.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Underavg 53¢ | $752.6 | $738.4 | -$14.2 | 14% 75-470 (545) |
NM NM-P | Underavg 52¢ | $182 | $182 | +$0 | 60% 3476-2366 (5842) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $83.2 | $83.2 | +$0 | 20% 97-380 (477) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $4.65 | $4.8 | +$0.15 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $4.19 | $4.03 | -$0.15 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
Invested
$752.6
Value
$738.4
PnL
-$14.2
Record
14%
75-470 (545)
Invested
$182
Value
$182
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
3476-2366 (5842)
Invested
$83.2
Value
$83.2
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
97-380 (477)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$4.19
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.