Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 50¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$18.71

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,809

Combined PnL+$41.29

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,500

Combined PnL-$60

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25	54% 519-438 (957)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$20	0% 0-106 (106)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$990	-$10	20% 6-24 (30)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49¢	$746.1	$760.88	+$14.78	57% 3183-2408 (5591)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 51¢	$765	$735	-$30	12% 65-459 (524)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 50¢	$125.5	$126.76	+$1.25	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50¢	$18.5	$18.69	+$0.18	49% 629-666 (1295)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 50¢	$13.31	$13.38	+$0.07	54% 512-439 (951)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25

Record

54%

519-438 (957)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20

Record

0-106 (106)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990

PnL

-$10

Record

20%

6-24 (30)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$746.1

Value

$760.88

PnL

+$14.78

Record

57%

3183-2408 (5591)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$765

Value

$735

PnL

-$30

Record

12%

65-459 (524)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$125.5

Value

$126.76

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

629-666 (1295)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.31

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

512-439 (951)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.